Gazing into Oscar’s Crystal Ball: Who Will Win Hollywood’s Biggest Prize?

With the Oscar ballots safely ensconced in the PricewaterhouseCoopers’ vault, it’s time for movie buffs to wrangle the office pool from the sports fans for a week. And while pitting one film or performance against another is like comparing Junior Mints to Jello, that never stops pop culture pundits from making our annual best guesses on who will score Oscar gold.

With a couple of tight almost “too close to call” races, I admit a bit of trepidation surrounds this year’s predictions. And that’s actually good news for those of us who delight in the thrill of the upset.

Having said that, one thing is crystal clear: the 84 annual Academy Awards will surely be far more entertaining with Billy Crystal’s affable maestro’s touch replacing last year’s regrettable dip into the Fountain of Youth that unleashed the Anne Hathaway-James Franco hosting fiasco.

Now onto the predictions. Kick up some popcorn dust of your own; play along at home. Let’s meet back here back here Monday and compare scorecards.

Best Picture:

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close- The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

In only the second year of the expanded (up to) 10 Best Picture nominees, the Academy only managed to eke out 9 contenders. Surely, they could have filled in that last spot with “The Ides of March” or “Albert Nobbs,” not to mention a cadre of acclaimed indies that are generally ignored like “Take Shelter” or “Martha Marcy May Marlene.” ( That the Spirit Awards, doled out on Oscar eve usually takes care of those gems is no excuse for Hollywood’s snub.)

But even with the larger field, Best Picture usually comes down to a two film race. This year it’s “The Artist,” that unexpected silent cinematic valentine vs. “The Descendants, ” an emotional, American masterpiece. But unlike last year when the showdown between early front runner “The Social Network” and inevitable victor, “The King’s Speech” came down to the wire and with some dramatic fanfare, this year should easily paint a pretty picture for the imported black-and- white celebration. In a match up of apples against oranges this one is a doozy. But the film is simply too inventive, too utterly delightful to ignore. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that its backed by the high-powered Weinstein marketing machine either. But so special–and exhilarating—-is “The Artist” that it really doesn’t need that big a push.

will win; “The Artist”

Best Director

The Artist
Michel Hazanavicius

The Descendants
Alexander Payne

Hugo
Martin Scorsese

Midnight in Paris
Woody Allen

The Tree of Life
Terrence Malick

This one appears to be a two-way battle between visionaries who paid homage to the golden years of classic cinema, Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist” and Martin Scorsese for “Hugo.”

Hazanavicius won the primary predictor here, top honors from The Directors Guild, while Scorsese pulled off an upset by taking home the Golden Globe. But the beloved Scorsese won a better-late-than never Oscar for one of his lesser films, “The Departed.” And Hazanavicius also seems to be winning favor in Hollywood, continually expressing his earnest, just-happy-to-be nominated attitude.Such sincere respect often yields more of the same.

will win: Michel Hazanavicius

Best Actor

Demián Bichir
A Better Life

George Clooney
The Descendants

Jean Dujardin
The Artist

Gary Oldman
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt
Moneyball

The early money had George Clooney walking off with the Best Actor statuette for his powerful, emotional dance as the devastated dad in “The Descendants.” But after The Artist” star Jean Dujardin pulled off a whopper of an upset at the Screen Actors Guild, it’s a toss up. Could the ( oh, so expressive) face of that widely celebrated film win the Oscar, too?

I’m getting little help on this one. My trusty Magic 8 Ball keeps offering, “Reply hazy; try again later.” But Uggie–the suddenly famous dog from “The Artist“– who Jimmy Kimmel has anointed his official Oscar prognosticator, actually picked Clooney over his co-star.

I tend to agree. It’s hard to see Clooney, easily one of Hollywood’s favorite sons losing to a relatively unknown foreigner. Especially for such a career high performance. But hey, stranger things have happened. Remember Roberto Benigni?

It’s a really close call. Both actors are so strong. And while the SAG is usually the best predictor for the Oscar, I think Clooney’s Hollywood stock will inch him up to the podium. But just barely.

will win: George Clooney

Best Actress

Glenn Close
Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis
The Help

Rooney Mara
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep
The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams
My Week With Marilyn

This one is so tough, my 8 Ball delivers snarky pronouncements like “If I knew this, I wouldn’t be working for you;” “Go away, kid, you bother me, ” and the latest, “Rick Santorum.”

Viola Davis, the true heart of the beloved “The Help” was the early favorite. That was back in the summer. Before Lady Streep entered with her remarkable performance as Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady.” After all, Streep’s the Academy’s reigning queen, with 17 nominations ( the most ever). But, while she’s nominated almost every year or so, she hasn’t taken home a prize since “Sophie’s Choice.” And that was back in 1983. So there’s real sentiment for Streep to finally win again. And she deserves it. Again.

But Davis is so great here and she’s yet to score Oscar gold. It’s pretty even going in: Streep nabbed the Globe and the British Academy Award, but Davis snagged the Critics’ Choice and more importantly the Screen Actor’s Guild Award. That’s the one that usually calls it.

Interesting to note: Uggie’s Kimmel prediction: he chose both Streep and Davis. Start spinning the rare tie rumor. Unlikely, I know, but it happened back in 1969 when both Katherine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand won for “The Lion in Winter” and “Funny Girl” respectively.

Of course a real upset would find Glenn Close at the podium for her brilliant “Albert Nobbs” performance.

Will win: Viola Davis

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh
My Week With Marilyn

Jonah Hill
Moneyball

Nick Nolte
Warrior

Christopher Plummer
Beginners

Max von Sydow
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

It’s nice Jonah Hill got on base for “Moneyball,” but this one’s shaping up to be an unofficial lifetime achievement award. And it looks like second-time nominee Christopher Plummer will take home his first Oscar for his his heartrending turn as a fatally ill septuagenarian who’s just come out of the closet in “Beginners.” The venerable 80-something actor–who’s racked up SAG and Golden Globe victories– deserves the coveted statue on the merits of this performance in this under-the-radar gem, but adding his 100 plus career projects only makes his Oscar quest ever more irresistible. There’s been a little Max Von Sydow buzz too, but “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” took such a critical and box office swan dive, it’s amazing it made the Best Picture list. And Nolte, too, is overdo for Oscar’s appreciation, but it’s doubtful he’ll get it for “The Warrior”

Will win: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

http://youtu.be/bAXw7jUfojw

Best Supporting Actress

Actress In a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo
The Artist

Jessica Chastain
The Help

Melissa McCarthy
Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer
Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer
The Help

The easiest, breeziest pick of all comes from a category that used to be the annual wild card. Remember the early 90′s? Winners Marisa Tomei, Mira Sorvino, Whoopi Goldberg and Anna Paquin were wild upsets. But recent winners like Melissa Leo, Mo’Nique and Jennifer Hudson were front-runners from the get-go.

And an upset this year is about as likely as a Sarah Palin presidential run. Jessica Chastain may be Hollywood’s “it” girl of the moment, having turned in a year of weighty performances in “The Tree of Life,” “The Debt” as well as her nominated portrait of the boozy outcast in “The Help.” But it’s her co-star Octavia Spencer, who keeps mopping up the floor against the competition, winning the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and SAG awards for her performance as the tough-but-vulnerable, inventive pie-making maid Minnie. If Viola Davis is the heart of the film, Spencer’s the soul. Watch as she’ll likely add another piece of silverware to her mantel Sunday night.

Will win: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Written by Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids
Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig

Margin Call
Written by J.C. Chandor

Midnight in Paris
Written by Woody Allen

A Separation
Written by Asghar Farhadi

Woody Allen’s the easy money here. He already picked up the Writer’s Guild Award for his biggest commercial success, a film that pays homage to his both his literary icons and his own vintage films. Not to mention he hasn’t scored Oscar gold in decades either.
Will win: “Midnight in Paris”

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash

Hugo
Screenplay by John Logan

The Ides of March
Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon

Moneyball
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan

“The Artist” may have the Best Picture mojo, but Alexander Payne will settle for the same consolation prize he took home for “Sideways.”

Will win: “The Descendants”

Best Animated Feature

A Cat in Paris
Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli

Chico & Rita
Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal

Kung Fu Panda 2
Jennifer Yuh Nelson

Puss in Boots
Chris Miller

Rango
Gore Verbinski

With the absence of “Gnomeo and Juliet” Trudi, my pint-sized pal with the crazy hairdo, wants me to boycott this category. All I can do is offer a prediction without comment.

Will win: “Rango”

Best Foreign Language Film

Belgium, “Bullhead”
Michael R. Roskam, director

Canada, “Monsieur Lazhar”
Philippe Falardeau, director

Iran, “A Separation”
Asghar Farhadi, director

Israel, “Footnote”
Joseph Cedar, director

Poland, “In Darkness”
Agnieszka Holland, director

Will Win: “A Separation”

Best Original Song

Another “Gnomeo and Juliet” snub with the omission of the catchy Elton John song “Hello, Hello.” Surely they had room. With only two nominations in this category it’s a toss up between
“Man or Muppet,” from “The Muppets” and Real in Rio,” “Rio”

will win: the Muppets!

Best Original Score

The Adventures of Tintin
John Williams

The Artist
Ludovic Bource

Hugo
Howard Shore

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alberto Iglesias

War Horse
John Williams

Will win:: “The Artist”

Best Documentary Feature

Hell and Back Again
Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner

If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky

Pina
Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel

Undefeated
TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Rich Middlemas

“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory” should win on its social activism alone. It is the latest in a series of films that actually helped right a miscarraige of justice, turning over the wrongful murder convictions of the Memphis 3. That it’s a compelling film only adds to its case for Oscar.

Will win: “Paradise Lost 3″

The 84 annual Academy Awards airs Sunday on ABC. Check out the official Oscar site for a complete list of nomniations and extras.

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