Ahmadinejad’s Dangerous Game

Today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced it will begin missile war games on Sunday to “maintain and improve” the deterrent ability of Iran’s armed forces. The announcement comes a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran was building a second uranium enrichment facility.

The revelation sparked condemnations from the US, Britain and France, and stole the headline from other key topics at the G 20 summit.

Iran has, in the past, threatened to target US bases in the region and to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage way of oil tankers in the Gulf, if its nuclear sites are attacked.

Meanwhile, Israel’s foreign minister right-winger Avigdor Lieberman said today that the newly disclosed facility in Iran was proof the Islamic Republic was seeking nuclear weapons and called for an “unequivocal” response.

“I spoke this weekend with experts from the East and the West. No one has any doubt, according to technical data that was published, it is a military core. The disagreement on whether Iran is developing nuclear capability has been done away with. I hope that after this latest revelation, at the discussion to open on October 1ST, the message passed from the start will be unequivocal,” said Avigdor Lieberman in an interview with an Israeli radio station.

At the G20 yesterday, President Obama stood with Britain’s prime minister Gordon Brown and France’s President Sarkozy to accuse Iran of building a secret nuclear fuel plant. Shortly after, Russian President Medvedev also said that if Iran does not cooperate with world powers at the October 1ST meeting, then “other methods” should be used to deal with Tehran’s nuclear program. Moscow has long resisted the West’s campaign to have harsh sanctions against Iran, it has recently changed position and could supp0rt sanctions that bite.

For his part, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was defiant on Friday. He said that “Israel will not dare to attack Iran”, and if Israel does, “the Iranians can defend themselves.”

“We are not concerned about an Israeli attack. Iran is a very big country, much larger and bigger than what some people think an imagine,” Ahmadinejad told a news conference in New-York.

Some, such as French President Sarkozy, view Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a mad man in need of psychiatric help. However, Ahmadinejad, despite his paranoia and delusion, is also a skillful political survivor. The only sanction that could have a real impact would be a complete embargo on purchase of Iranian oil. Iran’s economy is in bad shape, such an embargo would have a fast crippling effect. On the other hand, an Israeli strike on Iran would likely make Iranians rally behind Ahmadinejad, and could ultimately mark the end of the reformist movement.